Optimism Bias
Tamara is reading about the dangers of the flu for young children and the importance of flu shots. She thinks, "My kids are pretty healthy, so that would never happen to us." She does not get flu shots for her family.
Tamara’s reasoning suggests optimism bias. In other words, she believes she is less likely to experience negative events than she actually is.
Why it’s relevant to parent engagement:
When parents are determining whether to invest time or effort in their children, they consider the potential outcomes of their choices. Both positive and negative outcomes may affect the decision process. For instance, one parent might be motivated to read with his child because he believes that reading leads to academic success. Another might do the same because she fears that her child will have to repeat a grade.
Optimism bias can influence parents’ decisions by distorting their assessments of both positive and negative outcomes. Parents who anticipate an implausibly positive future and downplay the possibilities of negative events may not see a reason to increase engagement with their children or take advantage of various parenting resources.
Evidence:
Optimism bias is one of the most common and consistent cognitive biases. It affects individuals’ beliefs and decision-making regardless of race, gender, age, or nationality.
Optimism bias leads people to underestimate their chances of experiencing negative life events, such as being diagnosed with cancer or AIDS, developing a drinking problem, getting a divorce, or dying in a car accident.
The impact of optimism bias isn’t limited to major events. People tend to overestimate the short-term likelihood of small positive experiences, such as receiving a gift or seeing a good movie. At the same time, they underestimate the likelihood of negative events like getting stuck in traffic.
Experts are not immune to optimism bias. Doctors of seriously ill patients often overestimate the probability of survival and recovery,
Optimism bias affects a wide variety of parental beliefs. For example, parents show excessive optimism when assessing their children’s probability of graduating college, earning an above-average salary, or becoming overweight.
At
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Aspects of’s work with ParentCorps, a family-centered, school-based intervention, respond to optimism bias among parents in order to encourage more parents to participate in the program. For example, a parent-directed “myth-busters” flyer responds to beliefs such as “I don’t need a parenting program—I’ve already raised children.”
Tamara is reading about the dangers of the flu for young children and the importance of flu shots. She thinks, "My kids are pretty healthy, so that would never happen to us." She does not get flu shots for her family.
Tamara’s reasoning suggests optimism bias. In other words, she believes she is less likely to experience negative events than she actually is.
Why it’s relevant to parent engagement:
When parents are determining whether to invest time or effort in their children, they consider the potential outcomes of their choices. Both positive and negative outcomes may affect the decision process. For instance, one parent might be motivated to read with his child because he believes that reading leads to academic success. Another might do the same because she fears that her child will have to repeat a grade.
Optimism bias can influence parents’ decisions by distorting their assessments of both positive and negative outcomes. Parents who anticipate an implausibly positive future and downplay the possibilities of negative events may not see a reason to increase engagement with their children or take advantage of various parenting resources.
Evidence:
Optimism bias is one of the most common and consistent cognitive biases. It affects individuals’ beliefs and decision-making regardless of race, gender, age, or nationality.
Optimism bias leads people to underestimate their chances of experiencing negative life events, such as being diagnosed with cancer or AIDS, developing a drinking problem, getting a divorce, or dying in a car accident.
1
Chapin, J. R. (2000). Third-person perception and optimistic bias among urban minority at-risk youth. Communication Research, 27(1), 51-81.
At the same time, people overestimate the likelihood that positive things will happen to them. They believe that they will live longer, achieve more in their careers, and have happier marriages than is objectively likely.
2,
Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806.
3
Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941-R945.
The impact of optimism bias isn’t limited to major events. People tend to overestimate the short-term likelihood of small positive experiences, such as receiving a gift or seeing a good movie. At the same time, they underestimate the likelihood of negative events like getting stuck in traffic.
Experts are not immune to optimism bias. Doctors of seriously ill patients often overestimate the probability of survival and recovery,
4
Gramling, R., Carroll, T., & Epstein, R. M. (2013). What is known about prognostication in advanced illness. Evidence-based practice of palliative medicine (pp. 228-234). Philadelphia, PA: WB Saunders.
while financial analysts tend to publish overly optimistic estimates of corporate earnings.
Optimism bias affects a wide variety of parental beliefs. For example, parents show excessive optimism when assessing their children’s probability of graduating college, earning an above-average salary, or becoming overweight.
5,
Wright, D. R., Christakis, D. A., Lozano, P., & Saelens, B. E. (2018). Healthy, wealthy, and wise? Exploring parent comparative optimism about future child outcomes. MDM Policy & Practice, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/2381468318774776.
6
Wright, D. R., Lozano, P., Dawson-Hahn, E., Christakis, D. A., Haaland, W. L., & Basu, A. (2017). Parental optimism about childhood obesity-related disease risks. International Journal of Obesity, 41(10), 1467.
Optimism bias also taints parents’ perception of risk: they underestimate their own children’s risk of being in a car accident, dying from SIDS, or being injured by household safety hazards, even as they acknowledge that other children are vulnerable to these risks.
7
Rosales, P. P., & Allen, P. L. J. (2012). Optimism bias and parental views on unintentional injuries and safety: Improving anticipatory guidance in early childhood. Pediatric Nursing, 38(2), 73.
Finally, parents have upwardly biased beliefs about their children’s effort in school
8
Bergman, P. (2016). Parent-child information frictions and human capital investment: Evidence from a field experiment investment. Working paper, Teachers College, Columbia University.
and underestimate the implications of their children’s school absences.
9
Rogers, T., & Feller, A. (2017). Reducing student absences at scale. Working paper, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
At
:
Aspects of
’s work with ParentCorps, a family-centered, school-based intervention, respond to optimism bias among parents in order to encourage more parents to participate in the program. For example, a parent-directed “myth-busters” flyer responds to beliefs such as “I don’t need a parenting program—I’ve already raised children.”